The Lib Dems can win in East Dunbartonshire at the General Electio

A Scotland on Sunday poll last weekend pointed to a Lib Dem win in East Dunbartonshire. The poll showed a national swing of 7.25% from Labour to the Lib Dems since 2001. In East Dunbartonshire the Lib Dems need a swing of just 3.1% to capture the seat.

Labour nationally were on 33%, with the Lib Dems and SNP on 20% and Conservatives on 19%, in the poll conducted by YouGov and published on 13 February. Eddie Barnes, political editor of Scotland on Sunday explained the meaning of the poll, “Translated into seats, Labour would have 37, the Liberals 13, the SNP six and the Conservatives three.

General Election 2001 vote shares

Lab 43.9

SNP 20.1

LD 16.4

Con 15.6

YouGov February 2005 poll vote shares

Lab 33 (-10.9)

SNP 20 (-0.1)

LD 20 (+3.6)

Con 19 (+3.4)

Scottish national swing of 7.25% Labour – Lib Dem

The result in East Dunbartonshire would be:

East Dunbartonshire

Lab 33.3 – 10.9 = 22.4

LD 27 + 3.6 = 30.6 LIB DEM GAIN

Con 22.5 + 3.4 = 25.9

SNP 14.7 – 0.1 = 14.6